Daily Summary
Dissecting the Dow
Some may assume one stock or sector has been a primary catalyst for recent action for the index, but there have been a multitude of developments within underlying individual stocks that are worth highlighting to help understand recent action within the Dow.
Morning Pulse
NDW Morning Pulse - July 10, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 10, 2026.
- Most areas of the investable universe were positive throughout trading on 7/9. Of particular note was gold (which remains a point of relative weakness despite the up day), the Nasdaq Composite and small caps via [RUT]. The S&P 500 gained just under .9% for the day.
- Downside action was rather limited. Crude slipped ~2% as it reversed lower on its default chart, and the US Dollar found itself down just 9 basis points. Barring further escalation in the Middle East, crude looks to be finding its footing in the mid $70’s to upper $60’s.
- Technology and industrials have struggled so far this quarter, seeing representatives [XLK] and [XLI] as the worst performing sectors since 6/30. While one week doesn’t make or break a trend, continued underperformance from these leaders will be important to monitor throughout 2026.
- ^BPNDX, measuring the percentage of Nasdaq-100 stocks trading on buy signals, moved higher yesterday to a chart reading of 58%. While we certainly won’t turn our nose at any expansion of breadth, it’s no secret that participation remains well off highwater marks from 2024 and 2025.
- With its productive day, gold reversed higher on its chart…. But don’t buy into the “fool’s gold” just quite yet. It continues to trade at/around 2026 lows after recently breaking back into a negative trend.
Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 07/10. Access the the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page.
- Most areas of the investable universe were positive throughout trading on 7/9. Of particular note was gold (which remains a point of relative weakness despite the up day), the Nasdaq Composite and small caps via RUT. The S&P 500 gained just under 0.9% for the day.
- Downside action was rather limited. Crude slipped ~2% as it reversed lower on its default chart, and the US Dollar found itself down just 9 basis points. Barring further escalation in the Middle East, crude looks to be finding its footing in the mid $70’s to upper $60’s.
- Technology and industrials have struggled so far this quarter, seeing representatives XLK and XLI as the worst performing sectors since 6/30. While one week doesn’t make or break a trend, continued underperformance from these leaders will be important to monitor throughout 2026.
- ^BPNDX, measuring the percentage of Nasdaq-100 stocks trading on buy signals, moved higher yesterday to a chart reading of 58%. While we certainly won’t turn our nose at any expansion of breadth, it’s no secret that participation remains well off highwater marks from 2024 and 2025.
- With its productive day, gold reversed higher on its chart…. But don’t buy into the “fool’s gold” just quite yet. It continues to trade at/around 2026 lows after recently breaking back into a negative trend.
Along with the Russell 2000 (RUT), the only other index to see an improvement on all-time chart highs during early July has been the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJIA). Following Monday’s (7/6) trading, the Dow move above 53000 for the first time, and the index continues to maintain that chart position even with Wednesday’s (7/8) pullback in the broader equity space. While not the best performing index within U.S. equities whether looking at performance over the past month or quarter, the Dow has continued higher as of late along with small caps and equally-weighted assets– somewhat of an oddity when considering the constituents of the three aforementioned indices. Some may assume one stock or sector has been a primary catalyst for recent action for the index, but there have been a multitude of developments within underlying individual stocks that are worth highlighting to help understand recent action within the Dow.
Among the notable themes for helping push the index higher is the recent surge seen within healthcare stocks. Within the Dow, names like Amgen (AMGN), Merck (MRK), and UnitedHealth (UNH) have all rallied more than 4.5% in the last 30 trading days, while Johnson & Johnson has seen the most upside, up 9%. This week’s trading brought JNJ’s default point and figure chart to new highs at $268, placing the stock in overbought territory and leaving investors to eye potential exposure on a pullback to the $240 to $250 range. JNJ has been a 3 for 5’er since January and has maintained a positive trend and buy signal for more than twelve months. Prior to JNJ’s recent surge to highs, UnitedHealth (UNH) carried the leadership baton for healthcare names within the Dow as has the stock continued to improve through May and June after rebounding off its April lows, increasing to 5 for 5’er in technical attribute rating. This week’s action brought a rally to a 52-week high, pushing into overbought territory and lending to waiting for a pullback to the lower $400 range before considering. Along with UNH, Merck (MRK) is a 5 for 5’er that rallied to a 52-week high in June and continues to trade near those rally highs in an actionable price range. Though Amgen (AMGN) has participated in the broader sector’s improvement, the stock remains a low 2 for 5’er in technical attribute rating.

While earnings season is approaching and this may cause pause in adding or building on a positive, the following four stocks provide solid technical strength and trade within actionable ranges (bear in mind, each of these has earnings within the next 30 days). Apple (AAPL) returned to a buy signal last week and matched its all-time chart high at $316 during Thursday’s (7/9) trading. Also closing out last week with a push toward recent highs was J.P Morgan & Chase (JPM). Both stocks are 4 for 5’ers in technical attribute rating and each possesses superior near- and long-term market relative strength. JPM could be considered in this price range, while Apple is within an actionable range here at highs or on a pullback to $300. Coca-Cola (KO) may not be catching the headlines for it, but this week’s trading has led the stock above $85, marking a new all-time chart high and fifth consecutive buy signal since late 2025. Goldman Sachs’s (GS) recent pullback places the 5 for 5’er within an actionable trading range and the trend chart reversed higher Thursday (7/9) after holding support in the lower $1000 range. Along with GS, Cisco (CSCO) reversed back into Xs after pulling back to the middle of the 10-week trading band, placing the stock within an actionable range.
While not actionable at the moment, two names worth monitoring in the coming days or weeks would be Caterpillar (CAT), which has pulled back from recent extended highs, along with Travelers Insurance (TRV), which moved to new chart highs in the $340 range on 7/7.

Though a number of constituents within the Dow have shown improvement, a few potential portfolio stalwarts have witnessed notable technical deterioration. While the beginning stages of Microsoft’s (MSFT) deterioration transpired earlier this year, June’s trading saw the stock exhibit near-term negative peer relative strength and fall to a 1 technical attribute stock for the first time in 13 years. The stock has rebounded off support in the $350 range, but this now provides a line of demarcation for a continuation of lightening up or stepping away (depending on cost basis). A more recent development in terms of deterioration has been NVIDIA (NVDA), which has fallen to a 2 for 5’er tested support at $190 before returning to a buy signal following third consecutive sell signals in June. Last week’s trading brought Walmart (WMT) below $110, giving a second sell signal, violating support dating back to January, and falling to a 3 technical attribute. From here, holders of WMT will closely monitor price action as support isn’t found until the $90 range, while a violation of the trendline for NVDA would drop the stock down to a 1 for 5’er for the first time since 2022.

Featured Charts:

Portfolio View - Major Market ETFs
| Symbol | Name | Price | Yield | PnF Trend | RS Signal | RS Col. | Fund Score | 200 Day MA | Weekly Mom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 524.19 | 1.38 | Positive | Sell | X | 4.23 | 485.90 | + 13W |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 66.78 | 1.94 | Positive | Buy | X | 5.43 | 59.44 | - 6W |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | 103.92 | 3.08 | Positive | Sell | X | 3.80 | 99.12 | - 3W |
| IJH | iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund | 75.70 | 1.15 | Positive | Buy | O | 4.38 | 69.42 | - 2W |
| IJR | iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund | 145.47 | 1.11 | Positive | Sell | X | 4.51 | 128.09 | + 4W |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 723.28 | 0.46 | Positive | Buy | X | 5.76 | 637.39 | - 6W |
| RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | 213.50 | 1.51 | Positive | Sell | O | 3.16 | 197.64 | + 13W |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 751.71 | 1.01 | Positive | Buy | X | 5.18 | 694.04 | - 6W |
| XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF | 61.63 | 0.67 | Positive | Buy | O | 4.19 | 59.09 | - 6W |
Average Level
-2.30
| < - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
| AGG | iShares US Core Bond ETF |
| USO | United States Oil Fund |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF |
| DVY | iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF |
| DX/Y | NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF |
| FXE | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF |
| ICF | iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF |
| IEF | iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF |
| LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF |
| IJH | iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund |
| ONEQ | Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust |
| RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF |
| SHY | iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF |
| IJR | iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust |
| TLT | iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
| GCC | WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund |
| VOOG | Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF |
| VOOV | Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF |
| XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF |
Long Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | Garmin Ltd. | Leisure | $244.51 | mid 230s - mid 260s | 364 | 196 | 5 TA rating, LT pos trend and mkt RS buy, top 33% of LEIS sector matrix, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 7/29 |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | Banks | $75.15 | low-to-mid 70s | 93 | 63 | 4 for 5'er, favored BANK sector, LT pos peer & mkt RS, bearish signal reversal, R-R~2.0, 1.95% yield, Earn. 8/6 |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment Inc. | Leisure | $182.58 | low 160s to mid 170s | 202 | 142 | 4 for 5'er; Pos. Trend; Top Half of Leisure Matrix; Within one box of ATH, Earn. 8/6 |
| MO | Altria Group Inc. | Food Beverages/Soap | $71.59 | low-to-mid 70s | 91 | 62 | 4 for 5'er, top quartile of FOOD sector matrix, one box from RS buy, bullish triangle, 5.9% yield, Earn. 7/30 |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT Inc | Real Estate | $40.86 | $38 - $43 | 62.50 | 34 | 5/5'er since Apr. '25, top quintile of Real Estate Matrix, pos. trend and buy signal since Jul. '23. |
| BTI | British American Tobacco Sp-Adr (United Kingdom) ADR | Food Beverages/Soap | $60.87 | hi 50s - low 60s | 92 | 51 | 4 for 5'er, top 25% of FOOD sector matrix, one box from mkt RS buy, buy on pullback, R-R~3.0, 5.3% yield, Earn. 7/30 |
| LAMR | Lamar Advertising Company | Media | $162.24 | mid 140 to mid 150 | 228 | 122 | 5 for 5'er, top third of Media Matrix, pos. trend, Reward-Risk > 11, current yield > 4%, Earn. 8/6 |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | Banks | $115.35 | 100s | 165 | 90 | 5 for 5'er, top 10% of favored BANK sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, bearish signal reversal, R-R>3.0, 2.9% yield |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | Retailing | $117.33 | mid 100s - low 110s | 161 | 93 | 5 for 5'er, top 10% of RETA sector matrix, buy on pullback, R-R~3.0, Earn.. 7/29 |
| F | Ford Motor Company | Autos and Parts | $13.61 | 14.50 - 16 | 27 | 12.50 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of AUTO sector matrix, RS buy signal, spread triple top, R-R~5, 3.9% yield, Earn. 7/28 |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc | Leisure | $337.65 | low 320 - low 340 | 452 | 284 | 5 for 5'er since Nov. '23, top half of Leisure sector matrix, pos. trend since Nov. '23, buy since April, Earn. 7/28 |
| MFC | Manulife Financial Corporation | Insurance | $41.49 | 37 - 42 | 63 | 32 | 5 for 5'er since 1/26, top quintile of Insurance matrix, 3rd buy and ATH on 6/16, Earn. 8/5 |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. | Biomedics/Genetics | $33.67 | low 30s | 55 | 25 | 5 for 5'er, top third of Biotech matrix, pos. L-T Peer and Mkt RS, pos. trend. |
| AFL | AFLAC Incorporated | Insurance | $121.99 | hi 110s - low 120s | 136 | 104 | 4 for 5'er, top half of INSU sector matrix, LT pos mkt & peer RS, spread triple top, 2.1% yield, Earn. 8/6 |
| BUD | Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (Belgium) ADR | Food Beverages/Soap | $79.34 | low to mid 80s | 109 | 67 | 4 for 5'er, top decile of Food/Bev. matrix, pos. trend since Apr. '25, one box from Mkt RS buy, Earnings on 7/30. |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | Autos and Parts | $55.00 | low-to-mid 60s | 80 | 54 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of AUTO sector matrix, spread quad top, R-R~2.0, 1.8% yield |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | Aerospace Airline | $273.77 | $260s - hi $270s | 324 | 220 | 5 for 5'er and pos. trend since Aug. '22, L-T pos. peer and mkt RS, buy signal since April, R-R > 4. |
| RL | Ralph Lauren | Textiles/Apparel | $387.58 | 380s - 390s | 540 | 336 | 5 for 5'er, top third of TEXT sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, spread quad top, R-R>2.0, Earn. 8/6 |
| VIK | Viking Holdings Ltd | Leisure | $101.21 | hi 90s to 100 | 118 | 87 | 4 for 5'er, top 20% of Leisure matrix, buy on pullback, R-R > 3. |
| DCO | Ducommun Inc | Aerospace Airline | $170.84 | 160s - 170s | 206 | 144 | 5 for 5'er, top 25% of AERO sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/6 |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc Class C | Computers | $450.22 | 400 - 450 | 580 | 364 | 4 for 5'er, num. 1 stock in Comp. matrix, pos. trend since 2/26, within one box of ATH. |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | Insurance | $175.44 | 170s - 180s | 272 | 148 | 5 for 5'er, top half of INSU sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, quad top, buy on pullback, R-R~3.0, Earn. 7/27 |
Short Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|
Follow-Up Comments
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NDW Spotlight Stock
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation R ($179.09) - Insurance - CINF is a 5 for 5'er that ranks in the top half of the insurance sector matrix and has been on peer and market RS buy signals since 2021. After giving two consecutive sell signals, CINF returned to a buy signal last month when it broke a quadruple top at $170. The stock reached a new all-time high at $194 before pulling back to prior resistance in this week's trading, offering an entry point for long exposure. Positions may be added in the $170s to $180s and we will set our initial stop at $148. We will use the bullish price objective, $272, as our target price, giving us a reward-to-risk ratio of around 3.0. CINF also carries a 2.1% yield and is expected to report earnings on 7/27.
| 26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 194.00 | X | 194.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192.00 | X | O | 192.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 190.00 | X | O | 190.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 188.00 | 7 | O | Top | 188.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 186.00 | X | O | 186.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 184.00 | X | O | 184.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 182.00 | X | O | 182.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 180.00 | X | O | 180.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 178.00 | X | O | 178.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 176.00 | X | O | 176.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 174.00 | X | X | O | 174.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 172.00 | X | O | • | X | 172.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 170.00 | • | X | O | X | • | • | • | • | X | 170.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 168.00 | X | X | X | • | • | X | O | X | O | X | • | X | • | X | • | X | Mid | 168.00 | |||||||||||
| 166.00 | X | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | • | X | O | X | 3 | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 166.00 | |||||||
| 164.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 164.00 | |||||
| 162.00 | X | O | X | O | C | 1 | X | O | 2 | O | X | O | X | O | • | O | X | O | X | O | X | 162.00 | |||||||
| 160.00 | A | O | X | O | • | O | X | O | • | O | • | • | O | 4 | 5 | O | X | 160.00 | |||||||||||
| 158.00 | 9 | O | X | X | • | • | O | X | • | • | O | X | O | X | • | 158.00 | |||||||||||||
| 156.00 | X | O | X | O | B | • | O | • | O | X | 6 | • | 156.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| 154.00 | X | O | X | O | X | • | • | O | • | 154.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 152.00 | X | O | O | X | • | 152.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 150.00 | X | O | • | 150.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 148.00 | X | • | • | Bot | 148.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 146.00 | X | • | 146.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26 |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ($84.15) - Restaurants - CAKE broke a double top at $81 for a fourth buy signal since May as shares rallied to $84, marking a new all-time chart high. The stock has been a 5 for 5'er since May and ranks within the top quartile of the Restaurants sector matrix. The rally has pushed the stock into overbought territory, so those considering will look for a pullback to the upper $70s before adding. Initial support lies at $76, while additional can be found at $73. |
| CNR Core Natural Resources Inc. ($81.43) - Oil - CNR gave an initial buy signal Friday when it broke a double top at $82. The outlook for the stock remains decidedly negative, however, as CNR is a 0 for 5'er and ranks in the bottom quartile of the oil sector matrix. From here, support sits at $78 while overhead resistance can be found at $83. |
| SHOP Shopify Inc ($123.50) - Retailing - SHOP broke a spread triple top at $126 for a fourth buy signal since June. The follows a recent positive trend reversal, which increased the stock up to a 3 for 5'er. From here, note resistance in the upper $130 range. Initial support lies at $116, while additional can be found at $112 and $108. |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. ($147.50) - Leisure - SPHR broke a double bottom at $148 for a second sell signal as shares fell to $146. The stock continues to maintain a 5 technical attribute rating and ranks within the top third of the Leisure sector matrix. From here, multiple support levels reside in the mid $120 to mid $130 range. |
The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.
Call
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Oct 16 $115 Call

| Additional Data: | |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 1.41% |
| Delta | 64.57 |
| Gamma | 1.38 |
| Implied Volatility | 43.77% |
| Expiry Date | Cisco |
| Earnings Date | 8/12/2026 |
Put
Coinbase Global (COIN) Oct 16 $160 Put

| Additional Data: | |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 10.55% |
| Delta | -42.26 |
| Gamma | 0.67 |
| Implied Volatility | 75.92% |
| Expiry Date | 97 |
| Earnings Date | 7/30/2026 |
Income (Short Put)
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Aug 7 $260 Short Put

| Additional Data: | |
| Ann. Static Return | 52.61% |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 21.33% |
| Delta | 33.79 |
| Gamma | -1.06 |
| Implied Volatility | 43.96% |
| Expiry Date | 28 |
| Earnings Date | 8/6/2026 |