Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 07/08. Access the the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Futures are again lower this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way to the downside – down around 1.1%. Gold and silver are also lower.
• Oil futures are up about 5% after Iran attacked ships in the strait of Hormuz and the US launched a new wave attacks.
• US equities were down yesterday as the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.
• Tech led the market lower with the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) down 1.75%. Meanwhile, the iShares Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) was down more than 5%.
• NDX now sits against notable support at 29,000 on its default chart.
• International equities were also lower on Tuesday as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) fell 1.25% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) dropped 2.75%.
• Bonds were also lower on Tuesday with the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) down about 45 bps as long-term US Treasury yields rose.
• Minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released this afternoon and could impact expectations for interest rates. At this point, the market is still pricing in about an 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year and about a 45% chance of two 25 bps hikes.
• SpaceX (SPCX) was added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday with a weight of around 1.3%. The passive demand didn’t help the stock in the short-term as SPCX finished the day down more than 6.5%.

The NDW team presents this quarter’s full length “Weight of the Evidence” written report, detailing key technical shifts that occurred over the last quarter as well as important metrics to watch throughout the third quarter and rest of 2026. You can find the article linked HERE. Note, this document is designed to be modular in practice, with each page covering a specific topic in depth. It has also been approved for financial professionals and non-professionals alike.

A webinar recording of Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis and Senior Research Analyst Miles Clark discussing the report in more detail will be made available in the coming days. CE credit is available.

During the summer, out of office emails are commonplace as everyone tries to take time off to enjoy time with family, friends, or maybe just disconnect for a week or two. With every OOO automatic reply you get, you can probably bet that to get to their destination, someone got on a plane to get there. Quietly chugging (or perhaps, soaring) along so far in 2026 has been the airline industry. Bouncing off 2026 lows, airline representative JETS printed new all-time highs to open July, bringing with it a pair of PnF buy signals on its default chart. The fund’s strong 5.80 score as of 7/7 points to a strong technical posture as it outscores the average transportation fund by just over 1 full point on the ACGS page. While a renewal of concerns of unrest in the middle east saw the fund decline ~4% with intraday action on 7/8, the overall picture remains quite strong as the fund reverses out of heavily overbought territory on its default chart.

Speaking of unrest in the middle east, a (for the most part) dissipation of said conflict has been the main catalyst for upside action as crude prices have cooled to close out Q2. Using the correlation calculator on the platform to compare JETS (and a handful of other single-stock names) to Crude Oil (CL/) & Gasoline (IJ/) reveals a somewhat moderate inverse relationship between the airlines space and fuel-based inputs. This makes sense- fuel/oil represent a significant potion of total airlines costs (~29% source: https://www.iata.org/en/publications/newsletters/iata-knowledge-hub/unveiling-the-biggest-airline-costs/). Crude falling well off its 2026 highs back into the low/mid $70’s should, in theory, reduce the input costs related to a large portion of the variable expenses airlines need to run.

Of course, the previous comment would be true if jetliners pumped pure, unrefined crude oil into their tanks. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case, as this “raw” crude must be refined into usable product before takeoff. While not calculating the price of jet fuel specifically, the 3-2-1 Crack Spread can help identify the costs of refining 3 barrels of crude (your input) into 2 barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate (diesel fuel, heating oil, etc.) In layman’s terms, a wider spread signals a higher cost of refined outputs compared to raw inputs. Tracked by 321CRACKSPREAD on the platform, this value has stayed elevated despite a decrease in input costs. This should largely make sense as many of the US based strikes in Iran targeted refinement centers, keeping relevant supply centers low. Regardless, despite this spread continuing to expand markets appear to be pricing in tailwinds of further conflict dissipation and an eventual return to normal for raw-to-refined costs… which ultimately would be a rather significant tailwind for those areas relying on refined outputs. 

Delta DAL remains uniquely positioned as one of the major airline suppliers which owns its own refinery. While obviously still affected by the price of jet fuel and related costs, this helps act as a natural hedge to fluctuations in crude oil refinement. As the largest holding in JETS, Delta DAL remains a technically strong 5/5’er at the time of this writing on 7/8. It did return to a sell signal on its default chart, meeting some resistance ahead at all-time highs at the top of its 10-week trading band. As it falls back to some old resistance/support on its chart throughout the $80’s, those looking for focused exposure to the airlines space might consider a “flyer” position in DAL. PnF will do its best to look through the noise markets throw at us from around the globe, but it would be useful to set alerts for notable price breakpoints to be alerted of important price action as it occurs… regardless of if it is driven by a major news headline or not.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 7/7/2026:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (2:07)

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

Citigroup (C) Oct 16 $135 Call

Put

Adobe Systems (ADBE) Oct 16 $225 Put

Income (Short Put)

Phillip Morris (PM) Aug 7 $175 Short Put