Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 07/31. Access the the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Markets pushed significantly higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq-100 leading the way to the upside with a 3.36% gain, allowing NDX to reverse back up to a column of Xs.
• Upside was led primarily by the mega caps while the average stock lagged. The S&P 500 equal weight (SPXEWI) was actually down 0.2%, with the bullish percent for the S&P 500 dropping a percentage point as well.
• The bears are back in town. Among respondents to the AAII sentiment survey, just 31% think the market will move higher over the next six months. Prior to the last two weeks, that’s the lowest sentiment reading since Mid-March. Thankfully, worse sentiment is typically positive for the market.
• While momentum has struggled recently, it had an extremely strong outing on Thursday. The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) rose 5.53% for its best day since April 9th 2025. The fund still trades on three consecutive sell signals, but reversed back into Xs, leaving support at $285.
• Several Mag 7 names also reported earnings over the last two days.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) was the major winner of the day after reporting strong earnings, gaining 15.51% and pushing it up to a 3 for 5’er after regaining near-term market relative strength
  • Meta Platforms (META) plummeted 7.95%, dropping to a 0 for 5’er after flipping its trend negative.
  • Overnight, both Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) reported earnings, with Amazon lifting while Apple pulled back. Amazon will likely remain a low attribute name, but APPL is a potential buy on pullback candidate as a strong for 5’er.

While not garnering the same attention and level of performance as the likes of financials and healthcare in the most recent 30- and 90-day rolls, real estate has put in a good showing and seen notable technical developments occur. The State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) has gained 2.8% and 2.2% during the aforementioned periods, leading the chart to a third buy signal during last week’s trading with a breakout at $46. The move also clears resistance in the $45 range that dated back to late 2022 and brings XLRE to its highest level since May that year. The fund has traded within a positive trend since February this year and recent improvement has brought the fund score to above the acceptable threshold of 3 and highest score since late 2024.

Other real estate ETFs and mutual funds have witnessed improvement to varying degrees as well recently, but a notable highlight is the First Trust S&P REIT Index Fund (FRI). On the default trend chart, FRI rallied to a new all-time chart high at $33 on 7/17. The fund has maintained a positive trend since February and gave a second buy signal in April before seeing shares push higher as of late. Last week’s action brought about a reversal into Xs on the market relative strength chart against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI). The positive near-term market relative strength along with recent highs has pushed FRI’s fund score up to 4.67, marking its highest since early 2021 and placing it among the highest scoring real estate ETFs on the platform.

This near-term improvement has led to some ripple effects within the intermediate- and long-term rankings on the Asset Class Group Scores (ACGS) and NDW DALI pages. The real estate group on the ACGS page has seen its score improve above 3 and to its highest level since November 2024. When looking at recent improvements in group scores as defined by score direction, real estate ranks as the fifth most improved sector group, ranking only behind financial- and healthcare-related groups.

Within the longer-term NDW DALI Sector rankings, real estate has picked up 16 buy (tally) signals relative to other sectors since the beginning of Q3, tying the healthcare sector and lagging only consumer non-cyclicals in terms of buy signal gain. Even with near-term improvement, climbing from 10^th to 7^th in the process, the group has yet to show the broader based improvement in order to climb into the upper echelon of the rankings. It is worth noting that when looking at notable real estate ETF leaders, like FRI shown above, the sector is showing positive near-term relative strength against the State Street SPDR funds from technology (XLK), industrials (XLI), financials (XLF), and communications (XLC). The long-term relative strength relationships of the four aforementioned sector SPDR funds still favor the other sectors over real estate. Considering the charts reside in Xs, continued improvement by real estate on a relative basis could bring the sector further up the long-term RS rankings in DALI.

Additional evidence of improvement in real estate can be found by looking at the sector’s bullish percent (^BPECREALEST) and positive trend (^PTECREALEST) indicators. The bullish percent (BP) has risen to 58%, marking its highest level since November 2024 and suggesting just shy of 6 out of every 10 stocks maintain a point and figure buy signal on their default trend chart. The positive trend (PT) indicator has improved above the 50% threshold with recent action, similarly marking the highest level since late 2024 and noting more than half of the stocks within the sector maintain a long-term positive trend.

Since the sector hasn’t shifted into a long-term leadership position, potential exposure in the improving sector should be focused on high technical attribute stocks. Below are a few highlights from notable names within both XLRE and FRI (ETFs discussed above).

• Welltower (WELL) – WELL is healthcare REIT and the largest holding within both XLRE and FRI, accounting for more than 10% of each ETF. The stock has been a 5 for 5’er in technical attribute rating for roughly 2.5 years and sustained at least a 3 TA rating since early 2023. WELL has maintained a positive trend since February 2024 and shown positive long-term relative strength against the market as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) since April 2022 and its peers within the real estate sector since August 2019. June’s trading brought a return to a buy signal as shares rallied to a new all-time high by the end of last week’s trading session. Although reporting generally positive earnings earlier this week, WELL has pulled back from recent highs to the upper $230s. The stock is actionable in the $220 to upper $230 range. Prior highs around the middle of the 10-week trading band may be seen as initial support, while additional can be found in the mid $190s.
• Ventas (VTR) – VTR, a healthcare REIT, registers within the top 10 of stock allocation within both XLRE and FRI. The stock has been a 5 for 5’er in technical attribute rating since September 2024 and sustained at least a 3 TA rating since late 2023. VTR has maintained a positive trend since November 2023 and shown positive long-term relative strength against the market as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) since September 2024 and its peers within the real estate sector since May 2023. June’s trading brought a return to a buy signal, while July’s trading brought a third buy signal at $95 and all-time chart high at $100. VTR reversed down into Os prior to reporting earnings on Thursday (7/30), and while earnings were mostly positive, guidance slightly above mid-point estimates failed to impress some investors as Thursday’s trading brought VTR back to the lower $90s. From a technical perspective, the recent pulled back has brought VTR into actionable territory after what has been an impressive month’s worth of action and could be considered even on a reversal back into Xs in the mid $90s. Current support lies at $90, while additional can be found in the low $80s to upper $70s.
• Simon Property Group (SPG) - SPG, a retail REIT, registers within the top 10 of stock allocation within both XLRE and FRI. The stock has been a 5 for 5’er in technical attribute rating since April and sustained at least a 3 TA rating since late 2022. SPG has maintained a positive trend since April and has shown positive long-term relative strength against the market as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) since June 2021 and its peers within the real estate sector since February 2021. Trading earlier this week brought a second buy signal at $232 as shares improved to a new chart high at $236. Okay to consider SPG in the $220 to low $230 range. Initial support lies at $216, while prior highs in the lower $200s and the bullish support line at $182 provides additional support levels.   

Featured Charts:

Portfolio View - Major Market ETFs

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

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