Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 11/2/2026. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Indices were mixed following Friday’s (10/30) trading with crude oil (CL/) leading the way to the upside, up 2%, pushing the default point and figure chart to a third buy signal with a triple top break at $104. Gold (GC/) fell below $4000, producing a double bottom break at 3980 for a fifth sell signal as the commodity fell down to 3880, marking the lowest level since in 12 months.
• Emerging markets were negative with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) falling -2.68% Friday (10/30), leading the chart down below $61 to test the July 2026 chart low. Beyond current support for EEM, additional can be found at $55 and $53.
• U.S. equities were down Friday (10/30) with the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) leading the way to the downside at -3.46%, pushing the chart lower to give a second sell signal at 28800 as the index fell down to 28200, marking the lowest level since July. While most U.S. indices fell during Friday’s (10/30) and last week’s action, continuing lower in current columns of Os, only the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Nasdaq Composite (NASD) saw a switch to or an additional sell signal.
• Last week’s trading capped off with Domestic Equities overtaking International Equities for first within the DALI Asset Class Rankings. Much of the reason for the change has been due to weakness within the international space versus new superior strength emerging from domestic equities.
• Along with the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3^rd, there are just shy of 140+ stocks within the S&P 500 Index reporting earnings this week. Below are highlights from three reporting earnings on 11/2.
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) – Reports 11/2 – FANG improved to a 4 for 5’er after moving back into a positive trend mid-October. Last week’s trading kicked off with a third buy signal at $208 as shares rallied to $212, within one box of the all-time chart high at $216. Initial support can be found in the mid-$190s, while the bullish support line sits at $190.
  • On Semiconductors (ON) – Reports 11/2 – ON fell to a 2 for 5’er in the latter stages of October with the market RS chart reversing down into Os. ON capped off last week’s trading returning to a sell signal with a triple bottom break at $71. Note resistance in the mid $80s, while support can be found in the mid to lower $60s.
  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – Reports 11/2 – PLTR has been a 4 for 5’er since September and maintained a positive trend since August. October’s trading brought about an all-time high at $212 mid-month before last week’s trading saw the stock return to a sell signal with a double bottom break at $190 as shares fell to $182. Support for PLTR can be found at $174, the bullish support line, while additional can be found in the $166 to $170 range.

With the start of November, we have also officially moved into the “seasonally strong” half of the year, which lasts from November through April. We are all familiar with the saying "sell in May and go away," which proposes that portfolio growth would do about as well if all holdings were sold as they would be if invested in the market from May through October. Typically, conjecture doesn’t mature into an adage without basis and market seasonality is just such an example as it has shown an impressive trend in terms of magnitude, consistency, and longevity. We’ve discussed seasonality many times over the years and as we switch between seasonally biased periods, we wanted to revisit the subject today. 

The end of trading on Friday, October 30 brought the end of the seasonally weak period, which began with the close of the market on Thursday, April 30, 2025. Over this period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJIA) returned 4.27%, marking the third consecutive year of positive gains during the seasonally weak period 

Years ago, we began using the Stock Trader's Almanac, a reference tool published by Yale Hirsch that has been a fantastic source of information on the stock market ever since. In fact, we always order several copies for the office each year (if you would like a copy, you can visit www.stocktradersalmanac.com). The premise of the "Market Seasonality" study is that historically speaking, the market performs far better during the November to May period than it does from May to November. On its own, that isn't a particularly profound statement. However, when we examine the magnitude of this effect over the years, its significance becomes clear. Consider this: if you had invested $10,000 in the Dow Jones on April 30 and sold it on October 31 each year since 1950, your cumulative return would be only about $16,598. Meanwhile, the same $10,000, invested only during the seasonally strong six months of the year, would now be worth a little under $1.4 million. Put another way, almost all the growth of the Dow since 1950 has effectively occurred during the "good" six months of the year. 

In the graph below, we have reproduced the US Market Seasonality strategy that was first published in the Stock Trader's Almanac beginning in 1950 based upon the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The pink line reflects the seasonally weak period, while the blue line shows the seasonally strong six months. You will note that a theoretical $10,000 initial investment in 1950 is barely on the positive side when invested only from May through November. On the other hand, an identical $10,000 initial investment grew to $1.4 million with an average annualized return of 6.70% if invested only from November through May each year. 

Market Seasonality Notes 

• Since April 28, 2000, the Dow has gained more than 362%. However, the Dow is up only about 48% if we isolate only the seasonally weak periods over the same timeframe. 
• During the seasonally weak May to November periods, 29 out of the 77 years examined finished down, while there were only 17 years during which the seasonally strong period produced a negative return. 
• The best strong seasonal period came in 1986 as the Dow gained over 29%, while the worst seasonally strong period came in 1970 at a 14% loss. 
• The best seasonally weak period came in 1958 at a 19% gain. Only ten of the past 77 weak periods have seen double-digit gains. Meanwhile, there have been 29 double digits gains during the strong period over the same span.  
• The worst seasonally weak stretch came in 2008 when the Dow lost over 27%. There have been eleven seasonally weak periods to lose more than 10%, compared to only three seasonally strong periods. 
• Despite the longer-term trend, the Dow has performed better during the seasonally weak period over the last decade, with DJIA averaging a 6% return compared to 5.5% for the seasonally strong period. 
• When markets are higher during the strong period, the Dow averages a return of almost 11%, highlighting a high magnitude of potential upside if stocks hold steady.  

We acknowledge that this study is not a sophisticated tool for risk management, but it is interesting and does expose biases within the market. The most recent seasonally weak period was better than what history would dictate, but markets have still consolidated over the past few months. The upcoming seasonally strong period could provide a catalyst for major indices to resume their upside, especially given their long-term strength. Domestic equities recently moved back to the top of DALI’s asset class rankings while most participation indicators are starting to rebound, highlighting a favorable outlook for the group as we look ahead to the next six months.  

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

The Charles Schwab Company (SCHW) Feb 19 $87.50 Call

Put

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) Feb 19 $170 Put

Income

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Dec 4 $77 Put