Most Requested Symbols
Daily Summary
Weekly Asset Class Updates & Q1 Performance Review
Aggregated video and research updates for major asset classifications through 4/1/2025. We also review the best and worst performing ETFs for each asset classification through Q1.
Market Distribution Table
Daily Equity Roster
Today's featured stock is Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO).
Analyst Observations
Comments include: INTU, PFGC, RBLX, SPG, URBN, & USFD.
Daily Option Ideas
Call: Abbvie (ABBV); Put: Lennar Corporations (LEN); Covered Write: Comstock Resources (CRK).
Weekly Video
Weekly Rundown Video – April 2, 2025
Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.
Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.
Curious as to where the "Weight of the Evidence" stacks up across asset classes as we wrap up the first quarter and begin the second quarter of 2025?
Check out NDW's update for Q1 2025!
In addition to our written report, join Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis & Research Analyst Miles Clark to discuss the full report.
Date: April 3rd, 2025
Time: 1 PM EST
Click here to register for the webinar!
One of the best performing assets in the first quarter was gold with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gaining 19%. In fact, this was the best first quarter performance gold has put together with history going back to the mid-1970s. It’s been almost 40 years since gold gained at least 19% in a quarter with the last time being the third quarter of 1986. All the other quarters with better performance from gold came in the late 70s and early 80s which was a period rife with inflation and inflation expectations. Given the clustering of strong performance quarters, it’s noteworthy that the third quarter of 2024 was a top 15 quarter for gold when it gained 13.05%, so we have somewhat experienced that clustering effect. Following such a strong quarter, gold typically goes on to perform well the next quarter, albeit at a slower pace. Following the 15 best performing quarters for gold, the average and median performance next quarter were 9.38% and 5.83%, respectively.
On GLD’s trend chart, the fund trades on four consecutive buy signals and the price action has been nearly non-stop to the upside since March 2024. Since breaking out to multi-year highs in March 2024 with a move to $196, GLD is now trading at $285 and has only reversed down into Os once. GLD sits in heavily overbought territory with a weekly overbought/oversold reading of 115%, so there is plenty of room for normalization. Nonetheless, GLD has a near-perfect fund score of 5.69 and has shown no long-term signs of slowing down. With tariffs being announced and further negotiations to inevitably follow, gold could remain volatile in the coming months, both to the upside and downside.
As we do each quarter, today we update our U.S. and International "Smart Beta Quilts" and Factor Studies through the first quarter of 2025. Before the term “factor investing” became commonplace within the financial community, there were two main "factors" that advisors were already using within client portfolios: growth and value. Advisors commonly used various market capitalization sizes or some form of style rotation, but beyond that, there was not a lot of access to many of the security selection processes that are available today. The term "factor" is broad, and there is a healthy debate about what should fall into that category. Arguably, any indexing strategy in which securities are chosen systematically, based on measurable attributes, to produce superior returns over the asset class would qualify. Still, that covers a wide range and is a vague definition, but we can agree it goes well beyond "growth" and "value."
US Equity Smart Beta
Other factors commonly accessible through ETFs today are momentum, low volatility, quality, dividend achiever, and buyback strategies. All these factors are designed to pinpoint a certain investment theme within the marketplace, and systematically allocate to that theme. For instance, the “low volatility” factor is represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), a fund that seeks exposure to the 100 stocks with the lowest volatility in the S&P 500. Most of the factors examined offer better performance than the benchmark, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), through certain durations. However, no single factor ETF has been the best performer every year, or even most of the years...nor has any single factor ETF been the worst performing every year or most of the years.
Factor Return Observations (US Equities)
- Growth was the top performing factor last year for the first time since 2017. That has turned largely on its head in 2025 so far, with major growth groups struggling. Momentum (which would have been heavily weighted to these areas after a strong past few years for the space) follows suit, opening the year with a bit of a retreat.
- At the other end of the spectrum, more risk off names have found themselves at the top of the list. Points of relative weakness in 2024 have gained ground. This is somewhat similar to the 2022-2023 landscape, at least so far. Low volatility sits at the top of the pack for the first time since 2018, and it putting together its best start to a year since 2011.
- More areas are outperforming the benchmark than the 2023/2024 market environment. While this doesn’t guarantee a strong showing for any other factor, it does give money managers a bit of breathing room as they can find value/strength outside of the pure S&P 500.
- While it is still early on in the year, the dispersion between the best performing (low vol) factor and the worst-performing (growth) factor is relatively tight. The 14.43% spread is well below the full year average of 22%. Again- it’s still early.
It is About Time in the Factor, Not Trying to Time the Factor
Our goal with the research above is to illustrate the range of available factors and the necessity of discipline in applying these factors over time. We want to promote “good behavior”, as it relates to any investment process or product. This is perhaps the most important observation from the data above; we illustrated the outcomes generated by a few common behaviors using the same investment universe, and the outcomes vary dramatically.
There are the “buy and hold” outcomes, which show buyback and growth as the best performers, but we also know inherently what comes with a buy and hold commitment to only one group. 2022 was indicative of that difficulty, with growth underperforming most other areas. While not visible above, 2000-2002 were tough years for growth, tougher than many could endure. Buyback has found itself in the bottom half of factor performance in 8 of the 17 years of the above study.
Another approach is to equal weight all seven factors in a portfolio and rebalance that portfolio once a year. This gives you a baseline that notably underperforms the benchmarks over the last 10+ years. We also looked at the hypothetical behavior of buying the best-performing factor from the previous year and holding that factor for the entire next calendar year; we called this “Return Chasing,” and while no portfolio manager markets themselves this way exactly, it is an emotional bias that creeps into many investors’ psyches.
This “Return Chasing” portfolio tracks a hypothetical investor who sees that no strategy could beat the benchmark last year, so they just buy that factor for the next year. This strategy has only worked in one instance throughout our lookback window – when Value was the best performer in back-to-back years from 2012 to 2013. So far in 2024, last year’s leader (growth) finds itself at the bottom of the pack. On a cumulative basis, return chasing has been the worst “strategy,” massively underperforming not only the other “strategies,” but also what buying-and-holding almost any other factor would have provided. The factors themselves are not the problem, as many create substantial alpha relative to the market. Bad behavior can create bad returns out of good products, and constantly chasing last year’s best-performing factor often exemplifies that reality.
The opposite of return chasing is the contrarian approach, which buys the worst-performing factor from the previous year and holds it for the subsequent calendar year. The “Contrarian Switching” portfolio illustrates what is missed when an investor dumps a factor for having a bad year. A good stock can become a bad stock and remain such for a long time, so a good factor is less likely to stay perennially out of favor because it should have a process of systematically eliminating bad stocks – this is evidenced by the outperformance of the “Contrarian Switching” strategy. So far in 2025, this strategy has worked out relatively well, with dividend sitting in the top three of overall performers YTD after a weak 2024 showing.
International Equity Smart Beta
These strategies can also be applied to factor representatives from international equities, which, as we can see below, demonstrate similar tendencies to their domestic counterparts. Note that the representatives below are only for developed market equities, as there has not been enough historical representation of factor exposure in emerging markets to represent a robust examination.
Factor Return Observations (Intl Equities):
- All of the international groups find themselves in the black so far in 2025. If this trend continues, it would be the first time since 2023 of such a occurrence. Last year, all domestic equity representatives finished in positive territory.
- Performance leadership has stayed largely consistent this year with buyback and value in the top two spots. The past two years winners (momentum) has fallen out of the top half to start the year.
- In a similar note to the domestic front, the dispersion between the top and bottom performers is below historical averages. Growth and dividend areas found themselves in the bottom half of the rankings in 2024 and remain there there as we open 2025.
All weekly video updates for major asset classifications can be found below. Links to the latest research articles are also included for each corresponding asset class, which are updated weekly.
Major Index & DALI Review
Weekly Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Quarterly DALI Strategies Review (4/1/2025)
Article - Big Names Teeter On The Edge (3/28/2025)
Article - Perspective on the Week's Indicator Action (3/21/2025)
Article - The Fed & Uncertainty (3/20/2025)
Article - Equal Weight Over Cap Weight in Q1 (3/20/2025)
Article - 2025's "Subpar Seven" (3/19/2025)
Article - Pullback, Pullback, Pullback (3/14/2025)
Article - Trend and RS Changes (3/11/2025)
Article - Sector & Participation Divergences (3/10/2025)
Article - Large Daily Drop for SPX (3/10/2025)
Article - Domestic Equities Fail Bogey Check (3/7/2025)
Article - Small Caps, Small Participation (3/7/2025)
Article - Risk-Off Shifts (3/6/2025)
Article - Perspective on NDX Pullbacks (3/3/2025)
Momentum Updates
Weekly Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Q1 2025 Evaluations for PDP & DWAS (3/31/2025)
Article - Momentum's Momentum (3/21/2025)
Fund Score Overview
Weekly Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Asset Class Changes Loom for Group Score Models (3/18/2025)
Article - International Equities Gain Momentum (3/17/2025)
Article - S&P 500 Funds Reach Oversold Territory (3/12/2025)
Size & Style Updates
Weekly Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Small Caps Break Down (3/19/2025)
Article - Value Showing Higher Participation (3/13/2025)
Article - Small Caps, Small Participation (3/7/2025)
International Equities Overview
Weekly International Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Improvements Outside Domestic Equities (3/26/2025)
Article - Historical Perspective on the USD & International Equities (3/24/2025)
Article - International Cash Bogey Check Flips Risk-On (3/18/2025)
Article - International Equities Gain Momentum (3/17/2025)
Article - US Dollar Moves to Negative Trend (3/11/2025)
Article - Developed Equity RS Improvement (3/4/2025)
Alternative Asset & Cryptocurrency Updates
Weekly Commodities Video Update - 4/2/2025
Weekly Crypto Video Update - 4/2/2025
Article - Improvements Outside Domestic Equities (3/26/2025)
Article - Bitcoin Down for Q1 (3/25/2025)
Article - Crude Oil & Energy Disconnect (3/24/2025)
Article - US Dollar Moves to Negative Trend (3/11/2025)
Fixed Income Updates
Weekly Video Update - 4/2/2025
Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.
| Universe | BP Col & Level (actual) | BP Rev Level | PT Col & Level (actual) | PT Rev Level | HiLo Col & Level (actual) | HiLo Rev Level | 10 Week Col & Level (actual) | 10 Week Rev Level | 30 Week Col & Level (actual) | 30 Week Rev Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL |
|
36% |
|
36% |
|
26% |
|
34% |
|
36% |
| NYSE |
|
34% |
|
46% |
|
44% |
|
36% |
|
30% |
| OTC |
|
34% |
|
34% |
|
22% |
|
32% |
|
34% |
| World |
|
40% |
|
34% |
|
|
|
40% |
|
42% |
Q4 Sector ETF Update:
U.S. Sector Updates
The past week saw no significant technical developments in the Industrial and Healthcare Sectors. Those that saw noteworthy movement are included below, in order of their relative strength ranking in the DALI domestic equity sector rankings, as of 04/02/2025. Sector designations are based on DALI sector rankings and are as follows: 1 - 3 overweight, 4 - 7 equal weight, and 8 - 11 underweight.
Communication Services – Overweight
Weekly Communications Video (3:13)
The sector maintains its overweight status this week, earning the top spot within the DALI sector rankings. Underneath the hood, both cap and equal weighted options are still present within the sector. XLC sits at quite a notable range of support in the mid-$90's, a reversal up would be quite encouraging. FOXA is looks good around current level, having established nearby support while maintaining a strong TA score. Lastly, T looks strong around current levels and also pays you a near 4% yield.
Financials – Overweight
Weekly Financials Video (2:44)
While were recently dislodged from their top position in the DALI sector rankings, the sector remains in good standing. The SPDR Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) still has a fund score of 5.44 and yet to give a sell signal this year. Some areas within financials are looking to make new all-time highs, specifically insurance. The iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK) has a 5.24 fund score and is one box away from making a new all-time high. IAK has gained 9.36% year-to-date
Technology – Equal Weight
Weekly Technology Video (4:13)
Technology saw declining relative strength in our DALI sector rankings over the past week, leading the sector to drop into the fourth position out of the 11 sectors examined. This still leaves the sector in the top half but moves it from an Overweight to Equal Weight classification. Participation indicators have receded as well, with the ^TWECTECH falling to washed out territory alongside long-term weakening for the ^PTECTECH. MSFT and NVDA also each moved to negative trends and fell into weak technical attribute territory. The sector is generally oversold, leaving it ripe for a near-term rally. However, we would need to see relative strength improvement before it can be considered a leader again.
Utilities – Equal Weight
Utilities stocks were up roughly 2.7% over the past week to bring XLU to up over 4% for the quarter. Utilities were among the sectors to see improvement during the first quarter as the sector climbed to 5th in DALI and the RS in Xs indicator, which measures the percent of stocks maintaining positive near-term RS against the market as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight, has climbed to its highest level since late 2022. Utilities is also one of the few sectors were the bullish percent (^BPECUTILITY) and positive trend (^PTECUTILITY) still reside above 50%, suggesting at least half the stocks are showing upside participation. Moving into Q2, Utilities still maintains at least an equal weight position within client portfolios.
Discretionary – Equal Weight
Weekly Discretionary Video (3:11)
Discretionary stocks were lower over this past one week roll, though XLY has held support in the lower $190s nicely. The fund was down roughly 12% for the first quarter and the sector pushed many of its broader indicators such as the 10-week (^TWECCONCYC), bullish percent (^BPECCONCYC), and positive trend (^PTECCONCYC) to fall to their lowest level since late 2023. Stocks with notable chart action over this past week were Amazon AMZN, DoorDash DASH, Ralph Lauren RL, and Take Two Interactive TTWO.
Materials – Equal Weight
Materials moved up into seventh in the DALI sector rankings. As we have discussed recently, the strength within the sector is heavily concentrated in precious metals as gold continues to push to new highs.
Real Estate – Underweight
Weekly Real Estate Video (1:53)
Real Estate had a solid performance, seeing select sector SDPR fund XLRE gain 1.4% over the last one-week roll. Recent movement did result in the sector falling one spot within DALI’s sector rankings, but the move was driven more by strength from materials than deterioration from Real Estate. The sector also holds the eighth major sector rank within Asset Class Groups Scores where it holds an average 2.73 score, so it's an area to keep somewhat underweight for the time being. Over the last week, Zillow (Z) fell enough for the 3 for 5’er to move into a negative trend. It remains a hold for now but those with exposure should watch for further deterioration. Meanwhile, Welltower (WELL) completed a bullish triangle this week and the 5 for 5’er remains one of the strongest stocks in the sector.
Energy – Underweight
Energy moved up one spot to tenth in the DALI sector rankings. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has continued to outperform the S&P 500 over the short-term as it was up 0.8% over the last week, outpacing SPX by more than 3%. As we discussed last week, XLE has shown notable improvement over the last month, which has been reflected in in its fund score. However, even with the recent improvement the sector remains squarely in underweight territory based on its DALI sector ranking.
Staples – Underweight
With the market declining slightly once again, Consumer Staples was the best performing sector over the last one-week roll, seeing SPDR Select Sector fund (XLP) gain 3.6%. Despite its performance this week, the sector moved back into last place of DALI’s rankings after being overtaken by Energy. That said, Staples has shown signs of hope within Asset Class Group Scores, which is more sensitive to near-term movement. Within ACGS, the sector holds an acceptable 3.08 average score, which ranks fifth out of the 11 major sectors. Broadly speaking, the sector has shown improvement but is still lacking from a long-term perspective. Over the last week, Duolingo (DUOL) initiated the start of a shakeout pattern after the 4 for 5’er tested its bullish support line. Meanwhile, United Rentals (URI) remains a low attribute name and is potential cut candidate after bouncing off recent lows.
Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.
Data represented in the table below is through 4/1/2025:
Broad Market Commodities Report
Portfolio View - Commodity Indices
| Symbol | Name | Price | PnF Trend | RS Signal | RS Col. | 200 Day MA | Weekly Mom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL/ | Crude Oil Continuous | 71.20 | Negative | Buy | O | 72.74 | + 1W |
| DBLCIX | Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodities Index | 477.61 | Negative | Sell | O | 464.59 | + 1W |
| DWACOMMOD | NDW Continuous Commodity Index | 970.64 | Positive | Buy | O | 897.88 | + 1W |
| GC/ | Gold Continuous | 3118.90 | Positive | Buy | X | 2651.09 | + 4W |
| HG/ | Copper Continuous | 5.02 | Positive | Buy | X | 4.35 | + 16W |
| ZG/ | Corn (Electronic Day Session) Continuous | 461.75 | Negative | Sell | X | 430.94 | - 7W |
Average Level -14.66
< - -100
-100 - -80
-80 - -60
-60 - -40
-40 - -20
-20 - 0
0 - 20
20 - 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
80 - 100
100 - >
< - -100
-100 - -80
-80 - -60
-60 - -40
-40 - -20
-20 - 0
0 - 20
20 - 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
80 - 100
100 - >
| AGG | iShares US Core Bond ETF |
| USO | United States Oil Fund |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF |
| DVY | iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF |
| DX/Y | NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF |
| FXE | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF |
| ICF | iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF |
| IEF | iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF |
| LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF |
| IJH | iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund |
| ONEQ | Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust |
| RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF |
| SHY | iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF |
| IJR | iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust |
| TLT | iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
| GCC | WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund |
| VOOG | Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF |
| VOOV | Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF |
| XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF |
Long Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | Mercury Systems Inc | Aerospace Airline | $43.49 | 41-47 | 57 | 37 | 4 TA rating, top 20% of AERO sector matrix, consec. buy signals, buy-on-pullback |
| AXS | Axis Capital Holdings Limited | Insurance | $100.54 | mid-upper 90s | 115 | 77 | 4 TA rating, top 20% of INSU sector matrix, LT RS buy and pos trend, spread quintuple top |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc. | Finance | $510.78 | 490s - 540s | 684 | 400 | 5 TA rating, top 33% of FINA sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 4/23 |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide Inc. | Software | $56.70 | low-to-mid 50s | 75 | 46 | 5 for 5'er, top third of SOFT sector matrix, quad top breakout, R-R>2.0 |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | Business Products | $306.54 | 290s - 300s | 388 | 248 | 5 for 5'er, top third of BUSI sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, triple top, buy on pullback, 2% yield, Earn. 4/29 |
| AJG | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | Insurance | $343.86 | 300s - 320s | 484 | 272 | 4 for 5'er, top 20% of INSU sector matrix, LT pos mkt & peer RS, R-R>2, pullback from ATH, Earn. 4/23 |
| FNF | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | Insurance | $65.92 | mid 50s - low 60s | 88 | 51 | 4 for 5'er, top half of favored INSU sector matrix, new RS buy signal, 3.25% yield |
| VTR | Ventas, Inc. | Real Estate | $69.27 | lo-hi 60s | 96 | 56 | 5 TA rating, top 10% of REAL sector matrix, LT pos trend, buy-on-pullback, R-R > 2, Earn. 4/29 |
| KR | The Kroger Co. | Retailing | $68.14 | 62 - 66 | 82 | 57 | 5 for 5'er, top 10% of RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, R-R>2.0, 2% yield |
| MMC | Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | Insurance | $244.00 | 220s - 230s | 308 | 196 | 4 for 5'er, favored INSU sector, LT pos peer & mkt RS, quad top breakout, 1.4% yield, Earn. 4/17 |
| APG | APi Group Corporation | Building | $35.89 | 35-hi 30s | 57 | 31 | 5 TA rating, top 33% of BUIL sector matrix, consec buy signals, R-R>2, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 4/30 |
| RELX | RELX PLC (United Kingdom) ADR | Business Products | $50.67 | 45 - 50 | 85 | 40 | 5 for 5'er, top third of BUSI sector matrix, triple top, buy on pullback, R-R>3.0, 1.6% yield |
| IMAX | Imax Corporation | Media | $26.58 | 25-28 | 36.50 | 22.25 | 5 TA rating, top 33% of MEDI sector matrix, pos trend, consec buys, buy-on-pullback,Earn. 4/23 |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | Finance | $178.22 | 170s - low 180s | 234 | 158 | 5 for 5'er, top 20$ of FINA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, triple top, R-R>2.0, Earn. 4/22 |
| WELL | Welltower Inc. | Real Estate | $154.15 | 146-hi 150s | 228 | 122 | 5 TA rating, top of REAL sector matrix, LT mkt and peer RS buy, R-R > 2, Earn. 4/28 |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | Leisure | $210.13 | 198 - 215 | 266 | 172 | 5 for 5'er, top third of LEIS sector matrix, triple top breakout |
Short Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRNS | Varonis Systems Inc. | Software | $40.90 | hi 30s - lo 40s | 33 | 48 | 1 TA rating, bottom 50% of SOFT sector matrix, consec. sell signals, recent negative trend |
| IQV | IQVIA Holdings Inc. | Healthcare | $171.24 | lo 170s-mid 180s | 136 | 198 | 1 TA rating, lower half of the HEAL sector matrix, consec sell signals, bearish R-R > 2, Earn. 4/30 |
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill 'A' | Restaurants | $51.67 | hi 40s - low 50s | 45 | 58 | 1 for 5'er, bottom third of REST sector matrix, fresh RS sell signal, bearish catapult, Earn. 4/23 |
Follow-Up Comments
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NDW Spotlight Stock
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. R ($210.70) - Leisure - TTWO is a 5 for 5'er that ranks third out of 56 names in the leisure sector matrix. In last week's trading, TTWO completed a shakeout pattern with a triple top break at $220, marking a new all-time high for the stock; it has subsequently pulled back to the middle of its trading band, offering an entry point for long exposure. Positions may be added in the $198 - $215 range and we will set our initial stop at $172, which would take out multiple levels of support on TTWO's chart and violate its trend line. We will use the bullish price objective, $266, as our target price.
| 25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 220.00 | X | 220.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 216.00 | X | X | X | O | 216.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 212.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | 212.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 208.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | 208.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 204.00 | X | 3 | O | X | O | Mid | 204.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 200.00 | X | O | X | 200.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 198.00 | X | O | 198.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 196.00 | X | 196.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 194.00 | X | 194.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192.00 | X | X | X | 192.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 190.00 | X | X | O | X | O | X | 190.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 188.00 | X | O | X | 1 | O | X | X | O | X | 188.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 186.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 186.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| 184.00 | X | C | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 2 | X | 184.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| 182.00 | X | O | X | O | O | X | O | X | O | • | 182.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 180.00 | X | X | O | O | X | O | • | 180.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 178.00 | X | O | X | O | • | 178.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 176.00 | X | O | X | • | 176.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 174.00 | X | O | • | 174.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 172.00 | X | • | Bot | 172.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 170.00 | X | • | 170.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 168.00 | X | • | 168.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 166.00 | B | • | 166.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 164.00 | X | • | 164.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 162.00 | • | X | X | • | 162.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 160.00 | • | X | O | X | • | 160.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 158.00 | X | O | X | X | • | 158.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 156.00 | X | 9 | X | O | X | • | 156.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 154.00 | X | X | O | X | O | X | X | • | 154.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 152.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | • | 152.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 150.00 | X | O | X | O | O | X | O | X | • | 150.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 148.00 | 8 | X | O | A | • | 148.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 146.00 | O | X | • | 146.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 144.00 | O | X | • | 144.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 142.00 | O | X | • | 142.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 140.00 | O | X | • | 140.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 138.00 | O | X | • | 138.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 136.00 | O | • | 136.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 |
| INTU Intuit Inc. ($623.22) - Software - INTU pushed higher Wednesday to break a double top at $624. This stock is still in a negative trend with a 3 for 5 TA rating, but is showing near-term improvement. Further appreciation from the current position to $648 would move the stock back to a positive trend. Initial support can be seen at $568 and $560. |
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co Formerly ($81.10) - Food Beverages/Soap - Shares of PFGC broke a double top at $80, ending its streak of four consecutive sell signals. The 4 for 5’er moved into a negative trend last month but SPG continues to hold relative strength versus the market and its peers, making it one to continue holding for the time being. From here, its bearish resistance line lies at $83 with additional resistance in the upper $80s and lower $90s. |
| RBLX Roblox Corp. Class A ($61.14) - Leisure - RBLX broke a double top at $63 for a second buy signal and to penetrate the bearish resistance line, flipping the trend to positive. This will increase RBLX to a 4 for 5'er that ranks within the top quartile of the Leisure sector matrix. Okay to consider here on the breakout. Note the February 2025 chart high sits at $75. Initial support lies in the $50 range, while additional may be found at $48. |
| SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. ($170.41) - Real Estate - Shares of SPG broke a double top at $170 to move back to a buy signal. The 4 for 5’er moved into a negative trend last month but SPG continues to hold relative strength versus the market and its peers, making it one to continue holding for the time being. From here, its bearish resistance line lies at $184 with resistance from all-time highs at $190. |
| URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. ($55.31) - Retailing - After consecutive sell signals, URBN broke a double top at $55 to return to a buy signal as shares rallied to $56, testing the bearish resistance line. URBN is a 4 for 5'er that maintains positive near and long-term relative strength against the market and its peer group, and from here, a move to $57 would flip the trend to positive and increase URBN to a 5. Okay to consider here on the breakout. Initial support lies at $50 while additional may be found at $48. |
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. ($67.06) - Food Beverages/Soap - Shares of USFD broke a double top at $67, ending its streak of two consecutive sell signals. The 5 for 5’er continues to look strong, holding long-term relative and absolute strength. From here, resistance from all-time highs lies at $73. |
Daily Option Ideas for April 2, 2025
Calls
New Recommendations
| Name | Option Symbol | Action | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| AbbVie Inc. - $204.49 | O: 25I200.00D19 | Buy the September 200.00 calls at 17.00 | 182.00 |
Follow Ups
| Name | Option | Action |
|---|---|---|
| American International Group, Inc. ( AIG) | May. 77.50 Calls | Raise the option stop loss to 8.80 (CP: 10.80) |
| Rollins, Inc. ( ROL) | May. 50.00 Calls | Initiate an option stop loss of 3.20 (CP: 5.20) |
| American International Group, Inc. ( AIG) | Jun. 80.00 Calls | Raise the option stop loss to 7.30 (CP: 9.30) |
| Cardinal Health, Inc. ( CAH) | Jun. 130.00 Calls | Raise the option stop loss to 10.90 (CP: 12.90) |
Puts
New Recommendations
| Name | Option Symbol | Action | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lennar Corporation - $115.50 | O: 25U120.00D19 | Buy the September 120.00 puts at 13.10 | 124.00 |
Follow Up
| Name | Option | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Merck & Co., Inc. ( MRK) | Jun. 90.00 Puts | Raise the option stop loss to 4.60 (CP: 6.60) |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited ( WYNN) | Jun. 85.00 Puts | Raise the option stop loss to 5.15 (CP: 7.15) |
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
| Name | Option Sym. | Call to Sell | Call Price | Investment for 500 Shares | Annual Called Rtn. | Annual Static Rtn. | Downside Protection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comstock Resources $ 20.35 | O: 25G22.00D18 | Jul. 22.00 | 2.30 | $ 9,673.55 | 43.00% | 36.37% | 9.64% |
Still Recommended
| Name | Action |
|---|---|
| Starbucks Corporation ( SBUX) - 98.23 | Sell the June 100.00 Calls. |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 84.68 | Sell the June 90.00 Calls. |
| EQT Corporation ( EQT) - 53.88 | Sell the June 55.00 Calls. |
| Tapestry Inc. ( TPR) - 72.89 | Sell the August 75.00 Calls. |
| KKR & Co. L.P ( KKR) - 117.84 | Sell the July 120.00 Calls. |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A ( HOOD) - 42.16 | Sell the July 45.00 Calls. |
| Amphenol Corporation ( APH) - 66.07 | Sell the July 70.00 Calls. |
| Dollar Tree, Inc. ( DLTR) - 75.34 | Sell the July 75.00 Calls. |
| CVS Health Corp. ( CVS) - 67.98 | Sell the July 70.00 Calls. |
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
| Name | Covered Write |
|---|---|
| 3M Company ( MMM - 147.67 ) | June 155.00 covered write. |
