Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Mar 12, 2025
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Daily Summary

Weekly Asset Class Updates

Aggregated video and research updates for major asset classifications through 3/12/2025.

Market Distribution Table

The curve has an average reading of -28.88%.

Daily Equity Roster

Today's featured stock is Fidelity National Financial, Inc.(FNF).

Analyst Observations

Comments include: CENX, DLTR, GIS, HRB, HSY, LYB, TMHC, & ULTA.

Daily Option Ideas

Call: NetFlix (NFLX); Put: ConocoPhillips (COP); Covered Writes: Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS).

Weekly Video

Weekly Rundown Video - March 12, 2025

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Point & Figure Pulse

by Joseph Tuzzolo

Markets have been shelled over the last few weeks with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) falling 6.42% so far in March (through 3/11). The selling pressure has led the core of the US equity market, denoted by the S&P 500 Index Funds Group on the Asset Class Group Scores page, into heavily oversold territory with a weekly overbought/oversold reading of -100%. The last time the core was this oversold was October 2023 and September 2022. Historically, the market has a difficult time staying this oversold, however, it can bounce around -100% oversold over a few weeks before some alleviation takes place. A good example is 2022 when the core had a weekly overbought/oversold reading of -100% three times from May 2022 until June 2022, when a local bottom was formed. So, just because the core is oversold doesn’t mean it can’t stay oversold for what feels like a long time.

To add some color, the table below shows other instance when the core reached -100% oversold. Clusters within 30 days were removed. There were 32 total instances with data going back to late 2004. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the forward returns for the S&P 500 are strong across multiple time frames on an average and median basis. The market was positive at least two thirds of the time over the time periods observed. While the returns are mostly positive, there are periods where the market becoming oversold was not indicative of a bottom forming with a slew of occurrences in 2007 and 2008 leading to negative one-year returns. Outside of that environment, the market becoming this oversold has performed consistently well afterwards. Under the hood there has been a shakeup in leadership, so while the broad market may be shaping up for a bounce, it’s still important to stay vigilant in forming portfolios towards areas of high relative strength.

All weekly video updates for major asset classifications can be found below. Links to the latest research articles are also included for each corresponding asset class, which are updated weekly.

 

Major Index & DALI Review

Weekly Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - Trend and RS Changes (3/11/2025)

Article - Sector & Participation Divergences (3/10/2025)

Article - Large Daily Drop for SPX (3/10/2025)

Article - Domestic Equities Fail Bogey Check (3/7/2025)

Article - Small Caps, Small Participation (3/7/2025)

Article - Risk-Off Shifts (3/6/2025)

Article - Perspective on NDX Pullbacks (3/3/2025)

Article - What Do Markets Do in March? (3/3/2025)

Article - Technical Earnings Update (2/28/2025)

Article - Overly Bearish Positioning (2/28/2025)

Article - Leveraged Fund Study (2/25/2025)

Article - SPX Improves Against RUT (2/21/2025)

Article - Equities in Balance (2/18/2025)

Article - Cupid's Arrow on SPX (2/14/2025)

 

Momentum Updates

Weekly Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - Riding the Momentum Wave (2/24/2025)

 

Fund Score Overview

Weekly Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - FSM Model Evaluations (2/4/2025)

 

Size & Style Updates

Weekly Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - Small Caps, Small Participation (3/7/2025)

 

International Equities Overview

Weekly International Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - US Dollar Moves to Negative Trend (3/11/2025)

Article - Developed Equity RS Improvement (3/4/2025)

Article - US Dollar Update (2/26/2025)

Article - European Breadth (2/21/2025)

Article - Good Start for EFA (2/18/2025)

Article - Trump Trades Lag So Far (2/13/2025)

Article - Focused Foreign Country Strength (2/13/2025)

 

Alternative Asset & Cryptocurrency Updates

Weekly Commodities Video Update - 3/12/2025

Weekly Crypto Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - US Dollar Moves to Negative Trend (3/11/2025)

Article - US Dollar Update (2/26/2025)

Article - Crypto Bogey Check (2/20/2025)

Article - Tactical Commodity Exposure (2/19/2025)

Article - Trump Trades Lag So Far (2/13/2025)

 

Fixed Income Updates

Weekly Video Update - 3/12/2025

Article - Trump Trades Lag So Far (2/13/2025)

Through Tuesday’s close, all the Select Sector SPDR Funds were in negative territory for the month of March, bringing sectors like Communication Services, Financials, and Industrials from positive into negative territory on a year-to-date basis. Action over the past week has driven a couple changes within the DALI Sector Rankings. Communication Services and Utilities have captured most of the limelight in terms of improvement as the sectors have moved up to 1st and 5th, respectively. Consumer Cyclical was overtaken by Utilities during last week’s trading and the sector has seen the most signal deterioration out of the eleven broad sectors. Though the sector hasn’t slipped in rankings, Technology has the second largest deterioration so far. Given where relative improvement and deterioration has transpired, the remainder of the piece will explore individual relative strength relationships from the aforementioned four sectors.

Communication Services has risen from 3rd beginning 2025 to 1st within the DALI Sector Rankings for the first time in more than 15+ years. Though many investors may initially think this improvement from a relative standpoint has come from the high-flyers within the broader sector like Google and Meta, that hasn’t quite been the case. Much of the sector's initial improvement transpired within the higher beta names, but more traditional telecommunication stocks have provided the recent boost in relative strength. Examples of this can be seen on the RS charts comparing the iShares U.S. Telecom ETF IYZ versus the SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE and First Trust Dow Jones Internet Fund FDN on a 3.25% scale. The RS chart comparing IYZ to banks (KBE) moved to an RS buy signal, favoring telecom, on March 5th, while the IYZ versus FDN RS chart gave an RS buy signal following Monday’s action. Prior to the RS signal switch in recent weeks, both RS charts had placed the telecom representative out of favor since mid-2023. The reason for improvement within more traditional telecom stocks derives from the fact that these slower moving, lower beta stocks are simply not moving to the downside as quickly, or to the same magnitude, as stocks within other sectors.

Utilities have improved in a similar fashion to the aforementioned traditional telecom stocks due to not falling as quickly or to the same magnitude as stocks within other higher beta, offensive sectors. Examples of such are in the RS charts of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund XLU versus the First Trust Industrials AlphaDEX Fund FXR and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE on a 3.25% scale. The XLU versus FXR RS chart returned to a buy signal early last week after having been on an RS sell signal since November 2022. Although a signal flip didn’t occur, XLU was able to reverse into a column of Xs, indicating near-term outperformance, against KBE last week as well. KBE has been favored over XLU in the long-term since late 2023, but potential signal flip here would likely be followed by additional weakness from offensive sectors.

Speaking of offensive sectors – Consumer Cyclical and Technology have seen the most relative deterioration within DALI on a year-to-date basis. As can be seen in the DALI Sector Rankings image above, Cyclicals and Technology have lost 22 and 17 tally signals, respectively. For perspective on industries within Cyclical and Technology that have shown weakness this month, the Matrix Movers function within the NDW 40 Industry Group Matrix highlights those to have shown deterioration. While not the focus of the table for today’s purposes, those industries that have shown improvement within the NDW 40 Industry Group Matrix in March as well.

Cyclicals industry groups were where most of the weakness within the matrix has been seen, with textiles and apparel being the industry group to have fallen to most in March. Textile’s fell 16 spots from the top third of the NDW 40 Industry Group Matrix to the bottom third. Other cyclical industry groups moving lower were retail, leisure, autos and parts, and building. At this time, leisure and building are the only cyclical-related groups that continue to rank within the top half of the matrix.

Semis continue to take the brunt of relative weakness within the broader Technology sector, but other industry groups like software, electronics, and computers have also seen a fall within the matrix rankings as of late. Even so, the aforementioned three industry groups reside within the top third of the matrix, while semis rank in the bottom decile.

So while most cyclical industries have worked their way into the bottom half of the NDW 40 Industry Group Matrix, technology continues to have a few hanging on in the upper echelon. This highlights that weakness within cyclicals is transitioning from shorter-term to longer-term, while technology still sustains some of the long-term strength – but just barely.

Again, while not necessarily the focus, it is worth bearing in mind what industry groups have seen improvement within the matrix. Telecom is the notable highlight here as it has climbed in the top third of the matrix rankings. Meanwhile industries like precious metals, healthcare, and drugs note that some improvement has transpired within what were considered laggard sectors (or industries). A theme of these industry groups that have shown improvement is that they reside within what are consider more traditionally defensive sectors. While DALI’s rankings have yet to shift to a defensive posture, noting laggard improvement relative to leadership is the beginning stage. From here, investors will see if these more defensive areas of the market continue to pick up relative strength.   

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

 

Universe BP Col & Level (actual) BP Rev Level PT Col & Level (actual) PT Rev Level HiLo Col & Level (actual) HiLo Rev Level 10 Week Col & Level (actual) 10 Week Rev Level 30 Week Col & Level (actual) 30 Week Rev Level
ALL
Os at 30%
(29.3 -2.1)
BPALL
 
36%
Os at 32%
(31.5 -2.2)
PTALL
 
38%
Os at 20%
(19.3 -8.9)
ALLHILO
 
26%
Os at 28%
(27.6 -3.1)
TWALL
 
34%
Os at 30%
(29.7 -3.9)
30ALL
 
36%
NYSE
Os at 34%
(33.0 -1.9)
BPNYSE
 
40%
Os at 42%
(40.5 -4.0)
PTNYSE
 
48%
Os at 26%
(25.7 -10.2)
NYSEHILO
 
32%
Os at 30%
(28.2 -3.9)
TWNYSE
 
36%
Os at 30%
(29.8 -5.9)
30NYSE
 
36%
OTC
Os at 28%
(27.9 -2.2)
BPOTC
 
34%
Os at 30%
(28.3 -1.6)
PTOTC
 
36%
Os at 18%
(16.8 -8.2)
OTCHILO
 
24%
Os at 28%
(27.4 -2.8)
TWOTC
 
34%
Os at 30%
(29.7 -3.1)
30OTC
 
36%
World
Os at 34%
(33.7 -1.3)
BPWORLD
 
40%
Xs at 40%
(35.3 -1.3)
PTWORLD
 
34%
N/A
N/A
Os at 38%
(36.9 -1.5)
TWWORLD
 
44%
Os at 40%
(38.1 -1.7)
30WORLD
 
46%

U.S. Sector Updates

The past week saw no significant technical developments in the Industrial, Healthcare, and Energy Sectors. Those that saw noteworthy movement are included below, in order of their relative strength ranking in the DALI domestic equity sector rankings, as of 03/12/2025. Sector designations are based on DALI sector rankings and are as follows: 1 - 3 overweight, 4 - 7 equal weight, and 8 - 11 underweight.

Communication Services – Overweight

Weekly Communications Video (4:02)

Communication Services moved into the first position within the NDW sector rankings this week, overtaking Financials. Unlike many other risk-on proxies (XLK, XLY), XLC hasnt been hit as hard. With that said, larger names within the sector have taken the recent decline on the chin, leading RSPC to outscore XLC from a fund score perspective. META is a strong attribute name but is well off highs. Holders should continue to hold. GOOGL (GOOG) has declined significantly, exercise extreme caution with holdings if mag 7 names continue to tumble. SPOT & TMUS are both quite strong around current levels.

Financials – Overweight

Weekly Financials Video (2:41)

Financials fell from first to second in the DALI sector rankings after holding the top spot since August. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) gave its first sell signal since June 2024 and saw its fund score drop below the acceptable 3.0 threshold for the first time since November 2023. After showing signs of weakness, investors should be more cautious when it comes to exposure to financials, be sure to stick to high attribute stocks and ETFs moving forward.

Technology – Overweight

Weekly Technology Video (2:41)

Technology stocks were among the hardest hit over the past few weeks, with the equal-weight fund RSPT falling by over 11% in the last 30 days. That led the fund to move to a sell signal and negative trend for the first time since 2023. Participation indicators are also declining. However, the near-term focused ^TWECTECH is now in washed out territory at 18%. A reversal up from these levels could highlight short-term trading opportunities in names that have maintained technical strength. Larger stocks like ORCL have shown enough technical deterioration to be considered unfavorable for current exposure, while other names like MSFT still maintain some favorable long-term readings. Keep a close eye on the technical attributes as we navigate this turbulent environment.

Utilities – Equal Weight

Weekly Utilities Video (2:43)

Utilities were down 81 basis points over the past week when examining XLU. This led the positive trend indicator for the broader sector ^PTECUTILITY down to 50%. Intriguingly enough, the RS in Xs indicator, which measures the percentage of stocks maintaining a near-term trend of outperformance over the market as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI), moved to 42% and its highest level since late 2023. While Utilities stocks may be showing positive near-term RS against the market, it is worth bearing in mind that the positive RS derives from Utilities stocks not falling as quickly to the downside as stocks within other sectors. Even so, names like Atmos Energy ATO, Entergy ETR, and Southern Company SO, continue to show positive long-term technical pictures and have since prior to recent negative action. 

Discretionary – Equal Weight

Weekly Discretionary Video (3:22)

Discretionary stocks were the worst performing among the Sector SPDR funds as XLY fell roughly 5.7% over the past week. The negative action brought the bullish percent (^BPECCONCYC) and positive trend (^PTECCONCYC) to their lowest levels since late 2023, suggesting that roughly just a quarter of all stocks within the broad sector maintain a buy signal and positive trend on their point and figure charts. Notable subsectors leading down to the downside were Textiles and Gaming, down more than 6%, and Leisure down more than 5%. The weekly distribution indicator, which shows the average weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading, sits near its lowest level since August last year.

Real Estate – Equal Weight

Weekly Real Estate Video (2:57)

Real Estate continues to rank in the bottom half our relative strength rankings with it currently sitting in the seventh spot of DALI. The sector has ranked in the among bottom seven of DALI dating back to September of 2022 and has don’t little in the near-term to change that. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) reversed back into a column of Os over the last week after falling with the broader market. The fund also ranks below the acceptable 3.0 threshold with it currently at 2.50. Over the last week, Zillow (Z) spun off its third its third consecutive sell signal but the 5 for 5’er now sits right above support at $70 with its bullish support line at $69. Meanwhile, Simon Property Group (SPG) ended its streak of six consecutive buy signals and 5 for 5’er is now testing its bullish support line. 

Materials – Underweight

The broad materials fund – Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) was - 0.55% over the last week and the technical picture for the overall sector remains weak. However, we continue to see strength from precious metals as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up nearly 4%, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 7%. GDX has a strong 5.72 fund score and a positive 3.74 score direction. 

Staples – Underweight

Weekly Staples Video (2:38)

While the market has pulled back over the last several weeks, the consumer staples sector has fared relatively well, gaining some relative strength. Since the end of January, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is up 3.1% despite the S&P 500 declining by 7.8%. As a result, XLP’s fund score is up 1.48 points over that period thanks in large part to the fund regaining near-term strength versus the broader market (SPXEWI). Staples are also the only major eleven sector within Asset Class Group Scores to have a positive score direction. However, overall strength remains weak with it holding a 2.91 group score in addition to it sitting in the tenth of DALI’s sector rankings. 

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 3/11/2025:

Broad Market Commodities Report

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

 

 

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

-28.88

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
 
Sell signalXLG
                   
 
Sell signalVOOG
                   
 
Sell signalONEQ
Sell signaldx/y
                 
 
Sell signaliwm
Sell signaldia
                 
 
Sell signalIJH
Buy signalUSO
 
Buy signalhyg
 
Sell signalicf
 
Buy signalagg
     
 
Buy signalSPY
Sell signalrsp
 
Buy signalgcc
 
Buy signallqd
 
Buy signalefa
Buy signalshy
   
Sell signalijr
Sell signalQQQ
Sell signalVOOV
Buy signalgsg
Buy signaldvy
 
Sell signaleem
Sell signaltlt
Buy signalief
Buy signalGLD
 
Buy signalfxe
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
MRCY Mercury Systems Inc Aerospace Airline $43.27 41-47 57 37 4 TA rating, top 20% of AERO sector matrix, consec. buy signals, buy-on-pullback
ADI Analog Devices, Inc. Semiconductors $209.08 210s - 230s 328 198 4 for 5'er, top quintile of SEMI sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread quad top, R-R>2.0
AXS Axis Capital Holdings Limited Insurance $91.38 mid-upper 90s 115 77 4 TA rating, top 20% of INSU sector matrix, LT RS buy and pos trend, spread quintuple top
FTNT Fortinet Inc. Software $98.28 100s 155 90 5 for 5'er, top decile of SOFT sector matrix, spread quad top, buy on pullback, R-R>2.0
SPGI S&P Global Inc. Finance $480.00 490s - 540s 684 400 5 TA rating, top 33% of FINA sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, buy-on-pullback
ACIW ACI Worldwide Inc. Software $51.82 low-to-mid 50s 75 46 5 for 5'er, top third of SOFT sector matrix, quad top breakout, R-R>2.0
ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Business Products $292.44 290s - 300s 388 248 5 for 5'er, top third of BUSI sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, triple top, buy on pullback, 2% yield
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Insurance $325.75 300s - 320s 484 272 4 for 5'er, top 20% of INSU sector matrix, LT pos mkt & peer RS, pullback from ATH, R-R>3.0
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company Household Goods $94.10 91-hi 90s 114 82 4 TA rating, top 20% of HOUS sector matrix, RS buy and LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. Insurance $62.03 mid 50s - low 60s 88 51 4 for 5'er, top half of favored INSU sector matrix, new RS buy signal, R-R>2.0, 3.25% yield

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
VRNS Varonis Systems Inc. Software $39.73 hi 30s - lo 40s 33 48 1 TA rating, bottom 50% of SOFT sector matrix, consec. sell signals, recent negative trend

Follow-Up Comments

Comment
There are currently no follow-up comments.

NDW Spotlight Stock

 

FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. R ($61.65) - Insurance - FNF is a 4 for 5'er that ranks in the top half of the favored insurance sector matrix that recently moved to an RS buy signal for the first time since 2020. On its default chart, FNF returned to a buy signal and reached a new all-time high earlier this month. The stock has subsequently pulled back to prior resistance, offering an entry point for long exposure. Positions may be added in the mid $50s to low $60s and we will set our initial stop at $51, which would violate the FNF's bullish support line. We will use the bullish price objective, $88, as our target price, giving us a reward-to-risk ratio north of 2.0. FNF also carries a 3.25% yield.

 
      23             24                           25          
65.00                                                 3       65.00
64.00                                             X   X O     64.00
63.00                                             X O X O     63.00
62.00                                     X   X   X O X O     62.00
61.00                                     X O X O X C X       61.00
60.00                                     9 O X O X O 2       60.00
59.00                                     X A   B   O X       59.00
58.00                                     X         O X     Mid 58.00
57.00                                     X         O X       57.00
56.00                                 X   X         O X       56.00
55.00                                 X O X         O X       55.00
54.00                                 X O X         1         54.00
53.00                         X   X   X 8 X                   53.00
52.00                     2   X O 5 O X O                   52.00
51.00                 X   X O X O X O 7                     51.00
50.00                 X O X O X 4 X O X                   Bot 50.00
49.00                 X O X 3   O X 6 X                     49.00
48.00                 X 1       O X O                       48.00
47.00                 X         O                           47.00
46.00               C                                     46.00
45.00   2         X                                     45.00
44.00   X O       X                                     44.00
43.00     X O   9   X                                     43.00
42.00 X   X O     X O X                                     42.00
41.00 X O X O     X O B                                     41.00
40.00 B O 1 O     8 A X                                     40.00
39.00 X O X O     X O X                                     39.00
38.00 X C X 3     X O                                       38.00
37.00 X O O     7                                         37.00
36.00   O X   6                                         36.00
35.00       O 4 O X                                         35.00
34.00       O X O X                                         34.00
33.00       O X 5                                           33.00
32.00       O                                             32.00
      23             24                           25          

 

 

CENX Century Aluminum Co ($19.41) - Metals Non Ferrous - CENX returned to a buy signal and a positive trend Wednesday when it broke a double top at $19. The positive trend change will promote the stock to a 4 for 5'er. CENX now sits one box the next level of overhead resistance at $20, meanwhile, support can be found at $16.50.
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. ($62.82) - Retailing - After rallying to just below $80 in February, DLTR has fallen to give two consecutive sell signals with a double bottom break at $64 during today's trading as shares fell to $63. The stock had risen to a 2 technical attribute rating, but the market RS chart now sits within one box of potentially reversing into a column of Os. This action brings DLTR down to test the lows from late 2024 in the $61 to $62 range. From here, a move to $60 would mark a new a multi-year low.
GIS General Mills, Inc. ($60.03) - Food Beverages/Soap - Shares of GIS broke a double bottom at $60 to move back to a sell signal. Today’s move also saw GIS move back into a negative trend just two days after it initially moved into a positive trend. Weight of the evidence continues be against the now 0 for 5’er. From here, support lies at $59, $56, $55, and $54.
HRB H&R Block, Inc. ($50.23) - Business Products - Shares of HRB broke a quadruple bottom at $51 to move back to a sell signal. Today’s move also saw it move back into a negative trend, bringing it down to a 2 for 5’er. Those with exposure could look to cut loose given deterioration. From here, initial support lies at $49 with additional at $46 and $43.
HSY The Hershey Company ($170.94) - Food Beverages/Soap - HSY moved further down on Wednesday to break a double bottom at $174. The 2 for 5’er moved into a positive trend last week, but it lacks long-term strength versus both the market and its peers. Continue to avoid for now given lack of strength. Initial support is at $170 with additional support at $142. Bullish support line is also at $152.
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV ($72.26) - Chemicals - LYB gave a sixth consecutive sell signal and reached a multi-year low on Wednesday when it broke a spread triple bottom at $72; the stock has now taken out all support it has found since 2022. The move adds to an already weak technical picture as LYB is a 1 for 5'er that ranks in the bottom half of the chemicals sector matrix.
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corporation ($60.27) - Building - TMHC broke a double bottom at $59 for a fourth consecutive sell signal as shares are now testing long-term support. The stock fell into a negative trend back in December 2024, but maintains a 4 technical attribute rating and ranks within the top half of the building sector. A move below $58 on the trend chart would take out support that dates to August of last year. Additional support may be found in the mid to lower $50 range.
ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. ($331.15) - Retailing - ULTA broke a double bottom at $336 to complete a bearish catapult and count as a third consecutive sell signal since January. The stock fell to a 2 for 5'er after shifting the trend back to negative during last week's trading, and it now ranks in the bottom half of the Retailing sector matrix. ULTA is testing its November 2024 chart low, but additional support may also be found at $320, the August 2024 low.

 

Daily Option Ideas for March 12, 2025

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
NetFlix Inc. - $923.48 O: 25F920.00D20 Buy the June 920.00 calls at 81.70 848.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
No Follow Ups
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
ConocoPhillips - $97.43 O: 25R100.00D20 Buy the June 100.00 puts at 7.50 108.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
Dow, Inc. ( DOW) Jun. 40.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 3.00 (CP: 5.00)
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
Pan American Silver Corp $ 24.48 O: 25E25.00D16 May. 25.00 2.10 $ 11,747.10 29.93% 29.93% 7.21%
Still Recommended
Name Action
MP Materials Corp. ( MP) - 24.01 Sell the June 22.50 Calls.
Shopify Inc ( SHOP) - 92.95 Sell the June 125.00 Calls.
Dexcom Inc. ( DXCM) - 70.26 Sell the June 90.00 Calls.
Airbnb, Inc. Class A ( ABNB) - 125.44 Sell the May 150.00 Calls.
Steel Dynamics Inc. ( STLD) - 120.77 Sell the May 135.00 Calls.
Fortinet Inc. ( FTNT) - 98.28 Sell the May 110.00 Calls.
Broadcom Ltd ( AVGO) - 190.09 Sell the February 210.00 Calls.
Baker Hughes Company ( BKR) - 41.85 Sell the May 45.00 Calls.
Wells Fargo & Company ( WFC) - 67.28 Sell the May 77.50 Calls.
Citizens Financial Group Inc ( CFG) - 39.91 Sell the June 45.00 Calls.
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. ( AEM) - 100.57 Sell the May 100.00 Calls.
Apple Inc. ( AAPL) - 220.84 Sell the June 240.00 Calls.
KeyCorp ( KEY) - 15.16 Sell the June 16.00 Calls.
Regions Financial Corporation ( RF) - 20.99 Sell the June 22.00 Calls.
Kinder Morgan Inc. ( KMI) - 26.41 Sell the June 27.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
No Additions to This Section

 

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